Schedule tomorrow from the forecast, not from habit

1. 01

   Forecast covers by daypart

   For each location, write tomorrow's expected covers for lunch, dinner and any other daypart you run. Start from the same day last week and the same week last year, then adjust for bookings on the books, local events, holidays, weather and any promotion.

   The general manager owns the number. Write it down by [time] the day before, and keep last week's actual beside it.

   • Pull covers by daypart for the last eight weeks
   • Add bookings and known events
   • Write tomorrow's number down
2. 02

   Prep to the forecast

   Turn covers into prep. For each prepped item, set a par per 100 covers from your own sales mix. Tomorrow's prep is that par times the forecast, minus what is already made and still good.

   The chef owns the prep list. A cook should never hear "make a lot of fries" again.

   • Set a par per 100 covers for each item
   • Print the prep list from the forecast
   • Subtract what is already made
3. 03

   Schedule to the forecast

   Write staffing rules by station: at this many covers you need this many servers, cooks, a bartender and a host. Above a set number, another position opens. Build the schedule from the rules, not from who usually works that day.

   Managers can still override. When they do, the override is written down with a reason, so the weekly review can see it.

   • Write covers-to-staff rules by station
   • Build next week's rota from them
   • Log every override and why
4. 04

   Set cut and extend triggers

   Decide in advance when to send people home and when to call someone in. For example: if covers by [time] are below [%] of forecast, cut one server and one cook. If walk-ins and bookings run above it, extend the closer or call the on-call person.

   The shift lead owns the call, and makes it at a fixed check time, not when the room feels quiet.

   • Pick the check times for each shift
   • Write the cut and extend rule for each station
   • Name who makes the call
5. 05

   Order to par

   Order from the forecast, the par level, the stock on hand and what is already on the way. The suggested quantity is a starting point. The chef can change it, and the change is noted.

   Track every emergency run to the shop. Each one points at a bad forecast, a bad par, a supplier problem or a count that was wrong.

   • Set a par for each stocked item
   • Count before every order
   • Log emergency purchases with a reason
6. 06

   Review it every week

   Once a week, the owner and each general manager look at one sheet: forecast against actual covers, hours scheduled against hours the rules required, prep against sales, and waste by reason. Find the biggest gap and fix that first.

   Write every change down with an owner and a date to check it. The forecast gets better because someone looks at it.

   • Book the weekly review
   • Compare forecast with actual by daypart
   • Log one fix per location

of 18 done

Covers, prep, staff and triggers on one sheet per location per day. Copy the daily sheet.

How one restaurant group put a single forecast at the centre of the day. Read the group's story.

A printable version is on its way.