For restaurants and venues
Direct bookings, slow nights and guests you can reach again without a marketplace.
Breakdowns
One forecast runs the day
Breakdown. How a multi-location restaurant group replaced six ways of running a restaurant with one forecast that sets prep, staffing, cuts and ordering at every location.
Tools
What empty tables cost you
Tool. Five numbers in: the covers and revenue no-shows cost you a year, and what halving them would be worth.
What an OTA booking really earns
Tool. Six numbers in: what you keep per OTA night and per direct night, the commission you pay a year, and what moving 10 points to direct is worth.
Playbooks
Schedule tomorrow from the forecast, not from habit
Playbook. One forecast of covers by daypart, and six steps that set prep, staff and orders from it. An owner for each. Start it on Monday.
Answers
How do you forecast restaurant covers?
Answer. Start from the same day last week and last year, add the bookings already on the books, then adjust for events, holidays, weather and promotions. Write it by daypart, the day before.
How do you cut restaurant no-shows?
Answer. Confirm every booking, remind before peak, make cancelling easy, release unconfirmed tables on a fixed rule and refill them from a waitlist. Take deposits only where demand is highest.
When should you send staff home early?
Answer. When covers at a set check time are clearly below forecast, by a rule you wrote before the shift. Decide who goes first, who decides and when, so it is not a judgement call in a quiet room.
Is a direct booking worth more than an OTA booking?
Answer. Usually, once commission is taken off. A direct booking at a lower rate can leave more than an OTA booking at a higher one. Compare what each leaves after channel cost, not the rate.
How do you stop over-prepping food?
Answer. Prep from tomorrow's forecast covers and a par per item, subtract what is already made, and record waste by reason. Overproduction then shows up as a forecast or prep problem you can fix.
Templates
Daily prep and staff sheet
Template. One sheet per location per day: forecast covers by daypart, prep from par, staff by station, cut and extend triggers. Copy it and fill in your own numbers.
Table confirm rules
Template. When to confirm, hold and release a booking, when to take a deposit, who gets the table next and what the host says. Copy the rules and set your own times.
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